Dubai Real Estate Market Future Forecast: Experts Unpack 2025-2026 Investment Strategies
Introduction
Dubai's real estate market is projected to maintain its robust growth in 2025, buoyed by a vibrant tourism industry and strong investment demand. However, a significant supply of 200,000 new units is anticipated, potentially shifting market dynamics. This article, based on expert analysis, will provide a detailed outlook for the Dubai real estate market from 2025 to 2026 and outline strategies investors should consider.
Current Vibrant State of the Dubai Real Estate Market
The current Dubai real estate market is underpinned by several key factors.
Tourism Growth Driving Demand
In the first half of 2025, Dubai welcomed 9.88 million tourists, a 6% increase year-on-year, with hotels recording a high average occupancy rate of 80.6%. This booming tourism sector directly fuels demand for short-term rental properties.
Robust Off-Plan Property Sales
Property sales remain active, with "off-plan properties"—sold during the development phase—gaining particular popularity. Off-plan transactions accounted for 69% of all deals in Q1 2025, indicating strong investor interest. The average property price across the city increased by 3.7% quarter-on-quarter to AED 1,749 per square foot.
Record-Breaking Boom in the Luxury Real Estate Market
The luxury real estate market, in particular, is experiencing an unprecedented boom. In Q2 2025, transactions for properties exceeding $10 million reached $2.6 billion, setting a new record for the ultra-luxury segment.
Market Changes Brought by the Supply of 200,000 New Units
The most critical factor for forecasting the future market is the volume of new property supply. Experts predict that 70,452 units will be completed in 2025, with an additional 133,041 units in 2026. This increase in supply could have the following impacts on the market:
- Potential Price Adjustments: There is a possibility of a 10% to 15% price adjustment, especially in the mid-range market where supply is concentrated. This could present an opportune moment for buyers with increased options.
- Value Preservation of Luxury Properties: Conversely, luxury properties, characterized by limited supply and high global demand, are expected to maintain their value.
New Trends Investors Should Focus On
As the market evolves, investors need to pay attention to new trends.
"Flight to Quality" and Branded Residences
Moving forward, the "quality" of properties will be increasingly emphasized. The following factors will be crucial criteria in determining property value:
- Brand: Properties by trustworthy developers.
- Location: Prime locations with high convenience and future potential.
- ESG Considerations: Sustainability with environmental and social considerations.
"Branded residences," developed by renowned brands, are particularly popular among international investors, with approximately 140 such projects currently in existence. These properties tend to command a premium over general market prices.
Stability of Mixed-Use Development Projects
Mixed-use development projects, integrating offices, commercial facilities, and residential units, are also gaining attention. Dubai's office vacancy rate is low at just 7.7%, and rents are on an upward trend. Therefore, projects with diverse elements like these are expected to offer stable returns and long-term tenant retention, making them resilient to economic fluctuations.
Major Projects Shaping Dubai's Future
Large-scale projects are also underway to further enhance Dubai's geographical appeal:
- Redevelopment of Palm Jebel Ali: This project will create a new 13.4 km coastline.
- Expo Valley: The first phase will deliver 532 residential units, with handovers commencing in early 2026.
These projects are expected to diversify investment options and further spread demand across a broader range by 2026.
Summary: Dubai Real Estate Investment Strategy from 2025 Onwards
While Dubai's real estate market continues its strong growth, it is also entering a phase of significant change with a massive increase in supply. Short-term challenges include supply pressure in the mid-range market and increased purchase burden due to rising loan interest rates and service charges.
However, the luxury property market is predicted to continue its record-breaking boom, supported by land scarcity, the appeal of the Golden Visa program, and robust demand from overseas. The most successful investments in the upcoming market cycle are likely to be "branded, environmentally friendly, and well-located properties." Investors who accurately grasp these trends and select high-quality assets will position themselves for future success.
Reference Article: According to the expert, new technologies, tourism, and 200,000 Dubai homes are reshaping investor strategies - Propertynews.ae